International Relations Geoplotics

China's soft power concept is very different.

China's soft power concept is very different.

People like Chinese products in a more utilitarian manner, People also like Chinese efficiency, Chinese meticulous work execution and all of which makes for China's notion of soft power. Chinese portray themselves and love this identity of theirs.

Globally, Chinese are known for their work and their ability to get their work done in a roughed up manner. It’s in Chinese interest to portray themselves as brazen confrontationist and a hard task master.

They make the world fear; they make people maintain a distance from the very inflexible notion of Chinese nationalism. They want themselves to be seen as a no nonsense country, with a very high degree of nationalistic fervor.

The notion of goodwill is very different for Chinese.

They don’t want their work done through affection, rather they want it done in a brazen form through coercion, if anywhere it doesn’t suits their interest.

Elevating Liu Xiabo will be like accepting his philosophy, accepting his notions of goodwill, affection, love, peace and diplomacy. If Chinese follow it today...they wont be able to comply with its philosophy. Complying with it will harm the brand that is China.

Chinese soft power is more transactional, rather than diversely adaptable as is the case of India. Indian soft power is not truly in form of give and take. Chinese do want to take time, they want quick results. In case of long term interests, the Chinese whoever country they convert into soft power, almost take full control of it.

Chinese do not believe in the dictum that "If you want to get your work done, love is enough to get it done" Chinese seem to be more influenced by the fact that “You require power when you have to misuse it”-This statement epitomizes Chinese psyche and mentality.

From a psychological viewpoint, for Indians intelligence is wholesome solution, a means to understand and a means to provide lasting solution or never allow troubles to erupt. For Chinese intelligence is synonymous to being clever, being cunning.

No way will they follow Liu Xiabo.

WHY DONALD TRUMP WON?

1. THE AMERICAN ELECTIONS SHOW THAT GLOBALISATION HAS REACHED ITS PEAK, AND THAT GLOBALISATION WILL NO MORE IMPACT THE MINDS OF PEOPLE. NOT ALL GLOBAL EVENTS HAVE GONE FOR USA. 2. THE WHOLE OF WESTERN WORLD REPRESENTED BY USA HAS BEEN FED UP OF BEING POLITICALLY CORRECT, DESPITE BEING DEMOCRATIC AND ACCEPTING DEMOCRATISATION OF SOCIETY. FROM INSIDE THEY WANTED TO ASSERT, AND THEY DID IT. 3. THE WHOLE OF WESTERN WORLD AND USA HAS BEEN RENDERED INSECURE, BY MAJOR TERRORIST ATTACKS MASTERED AND MANIPULATED BY PEOPLE FOLLOWING ISLAMIC RELIGION. MR DONALD TRUMP WAS VERY VOCAL ASSERTIVE AND AGGRESSIVE ON THWARTING TERRORISM. 4. IN ANY CASE THE THINKING OF THE WORLD HAS BEEN SHIFTING TOWARDS RIGHTIST APPROACH, EXHIBITED BY SRI MODIJI'S WIN, BREXIT AND NOW AMERICAN ELECTIONS.

Arctic Sea melting and its impact on Geopolitics

Arctic Sea melting and its Impact on Geopolitics

The Northern Sea Route along Russia’s edge, that is likely to be free of ice first, can reduce the sailing distance between Asian ports and northern Europe by 40 per cent. The other major Arctic shipping route is the Northwest Passage, which connects Europe and Asia. It is nearly 5,000 nautical miles shorter than the 12,600 nautical mile distance between Europe and Asia through the Panama Canal. The Arctic is believed to hold about 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil, 30 per cent of its undiscovered natural gas, and 20 per cent of its undiscovered natural gas liquids.

Why does this matter?

The Northern Sea Route along Russia’s edge, that is likely to be free of ice first, can reduce the sailing distance between Asian ports and northern Europe by 40 per cent. The other major Arctic shipping route is the Northwest Passage, which connects Europe and Asia. It is nearly 5,000 nautical miles shorter than the 12,600 nautical mile distance between Europe and Asia through the Panama Canal. The Arctic is believed to hold about 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil, 30 per cent of its undiscovered natural gas, and 20 per cent of its undiscovered natural gas liquids.

The Current Situation

Right Now, there are no international conventions regulating Arctic shipping operations. Rules are coming into force in 2016. As of 2010, most Arctic shipping routes were ice-free for only about 30 days. The commercial shipping route is currently open for only about four months a year. The Concern ‘The Polar Code’ does not deal with the problem of ballast water discharge, which often introduces non-native species to a region, and continues to allow vessels to use heavy fuel oil, a potential pollutant.

Stance of Different Countries

Russia Submitted its initial claim to the North Pole, and 7,40,000 5q km of surrounding territory, to the UN in 2001. In 2006 Norway became the second and only Arctic nation besides Russia to submit an extended continental shelf claim.

In 2013, end Canada said it would claim the North Pole, around 800 km north of Alert, Nunavut, the country’s – and the world’s – northermost settlement, provoking threats of military deployment by Moscow. Geographically, Denmark is not within the Arctic region. However, because of its territory, Greenland, and its province, the Faroe Islands, its potential claims to the Arctic extend from Greenland up to the North Pole, via the potentially oil-rich Lomonosov Ridge. Since International Law only allows countries to extend their territory 200 km offshore, the claims are based on some creative interpretations of where the landmasses end. All argue that mountain ranges that criss-cross the floor of the Arctic Ocean are extensions of their own continental shelves. It is up to the UN to adjudicate.

Conclusion

No country owns the geographic North Pole or the region of the Arctic Ocean surrounding it. However, the 5 countries located along the shore of the Arctic Ocean – Russia, the US, Denmark, Canada and Norway – have competing territorial claims. While some maintain that like Antarctica, the Arctic should not be exploited for any activity save scientific expeditions, others contend that its resources belong to the entire world.

कोल्ड स्टार्ट के प्रति पड़ोसी देशों की नीति और भारतीय रणनीति

कोल्ड स्टार्ट एक सैन्य सिद्धांत है जिसे भारतीय सेना ने पाकिस्तान के खिलाफ संभावित युद्ध को ध्यान में रखकर विकसित किया है। कोल्ड स्टार्ट सिद्धान्त के अनुसार आदेश मिलने के 48 घंटों के भीतर हमला शुरू किया जा सकता है। इतने कम समय में हमला करने से भारतीय सेना पाकिस्तानी सेना को आश्चर्यचकित कर देगी। इस पद्धति में भारतीय सेना के विभिन्न हिस्सों को आक्रमण के लिए एकीकृत करने पर जोर दिया गया है। इस तरह का अभियान पंजाब और राजस्थान के सीमावर्ती इलाकों में होगा। कोल्ड स्टार्ट सिद्धान्त का एक उद्देश्य युद्ध की स्थिति पाकिस्तान को परमाणु हमले से रोकना है, क्योंकि उसे जरा भी समय नहीं देना है।

उद्देश्य

इस योजना का मूल उद्देश्य तीव्रगति से हमले पर जोर दिया गया है। इसके बख्तरबंद वाहन और तोपखाना पाकिस्तान के इलाके में इसके अन्तर्गत कम से कम समय में प्रवेश कराया जा सकता है। कोल्ड स्टार्ट सिद्धान्त को पाकिस्तान के खिलाफ भारतीय सेनाओं को कुछ हफ्तों के स्थान पर केवल कुछ दिनों में ही तैनात करने के लिए बनाया गया था। इसका परीक्षण भी अभी युद्ध में किया जाना शेष है। इसका उद्देश्य है कि तत्काल लामबंदी और त्वरित हमले से पाकिस्तान आश्चर्यचकित रह जाएगा। इससे पाकिस्तानी प्रतिक्रिया के पहले ही भारत अपने उद्देश्यों को हासिल कर सकेगा। अंतर्राष्ट्रीय समुदाय द्वारा युद्ध रोकने की पहल से पूर्व ही भारत अपने उद्देश्यों को पूर्ण कर चुका होगा।

पृष्ठभूमि

सेना लम्बे समय से एक सैन्य सिद्धान्त पर कार्य कर रही थी जो कि काफी पुराना पड़ चुका था। संसद भवन पर आतंकवादी हमले के बाद पाकिस्तान के खिलाफ सेनाओं की तैनाती के ऑपरेशन पराक्रम के दौरान इस सिद्धान्त की कई कमजोरियां प्रकाश में आईं। इनको दूर करने के कई प्रयास किए गए। इसके बाद सेना ने एक व्यापक आधुनिकीकरण कार्यक्रम शुरू किया। परन्तु सेना की आक्रमणात्मक क्षमता में अत्यधिक वृद्धि करने वाले नए हथियारों को हासिल करने में विलंब हुआ। यहां तक कि भविष्य में एक युद्ध में महत्त्वपूर्ण भूमिका निभाने वाली या दुश्मन सेना के पीछे से जाकर हमला करने वाली भारत की विशेष सेनाओं को भी अत्याधुनिक हथियारों से पूर्णतः सुसज्जित करना अभी भी बाकी है।

समस्याएं

पाकिस्तान को असुरक्षित स्थिति में दबोचने और परमाणु हथियारों की छाया में युद्ध से कई समस्याएं हैं। इस सिद्धांत के सफलतापूर्वक क्रियान्वयन में भी कई किंतु-परंतु हैं। पाकिस्तान की प्रतिक्रिया का अंदाजा पहले से नहीं लगाया जा सकता और पाकिस्तान क्षेत्रों पर कब्जा बहुत कम समय के लिए हो सकता है क्योंकि उसे अधीन नहीं बनाया जा सकता। कुछ पाकिस्तानी प्रतिक्रियाओं में उनकी प्रतिरोधक रणनीति का महत्त्वपूर्ण संकेत मिलता है। पाकिस्तान के शीर्ष सैन्य कमांडरों का कहना है कि भारत की कोल्ड स्टार्ट की रणनीति पाकिस्तानी सैन्य क्षमता के गलत आकलन और गलत धारणा पर आधारित है। भारत के नए सैन्य सिद्धान्त से खतरनाक रोमांचवाद पैदा होगा जिसके परिणाम गैर इरादतन और अनियंत्रित होंगे। सीमित युद्ध इस उपमहाद्वीप को खतरनाक स्थिति में पहुंचा देगा। भारतीय रणनीति जिसका उद्देश्य आश्चर्य और गति के साथ एक परंपरागत हमला करना है, इस तथ्य की अनदेखी करता है कि पाकिस्तान के पास परमाणु हथियार हैं। इन हथियारों को तेज गति से हमले में भी नष्ट नहीं किया जा सकता है। पाकिस्तान पूर्वानुमानित हमले की स्थिति में मिसाइलों की संख्या में वृद्धि कर सकता है। वास्तव में कोल्ड स्टार्ट सिद्धान्त केवल पश्चिमी मोर्चे पर पाकिस्तान के खिलाफ युद्ध में ही अपनाया जा सकता है।

सीमितता

पाकिस्तान से युद्ध सिर्फ भारत की समस्या नहीं। चीन एक दूसरा मोर्चा भी खोल देगा। दो मोर्चों पर युद्ध एक अलग तरह का खेल होगा। दो मोर्चों पर युद्ध की रणनीति अभी सिद्धान्त रूप में आनी बाकी है। इस बात के संकेत हैं कि एक संभावित दो मोर्चों पर युद्ध की रणनीति के सिद्धान्त पर गहन चिंतन चल रहा है। चीन और पाकिस्तान के बढ़ते सहयोग को देखते हुए यह संभव है कि भारत को दो मोर्चों पर युद्ध का सामना करना पड़े। भारत सिर्फ पाकिस्तान को ध्यान में रखकर कोल्ड स्टार्ट सिद्धांत लागू नहीं कर सकता। source: indiatimes

SHALE GAS CAN TRANSFORM ENERGY GEOPOLITICS

1.Shale Gas is a form of natural gas that is trapped within shale (a fine grained sedimentary rock) formations, shale gas is known for more than a century. It was not seen as a viable alternative to petroleum fuels because shale drilling (which is done horizontally) is more expensive than conventional oil drilling. Shale was not worth extracting with conventional technology. Now a new technology, 'fracking', plus horizontal drilling, have greatly increased shale gas productivity, so extraction is now viable. Gas can readily substitute fuel oil in industry and power generation, and kerosene in cooking. But the bulk of oil consumption is in transport. 2.Shale gas has the potential to transform the entire geopolitics of world. It is because 3.Shale gas can hugely reduce the dependence of most countries (including India) on imported energy. 4.Second, the geopolitical clout of major gas exporters — Russia, Iran, Algeria, Bolivia — will fall dramatically. 5.Third, some countries may start converting their transport fleets into gas-based ones, hitting the demand for and prices of petrol and diesel. 6.Fourth, converting gas into oil will become economic. 7.Fifth, The major International Shipping transport route is likely to undergo major change. For example, the finding of oil shale in Brazil and Venezuela along with massive deposits of shale oil in Canada has altered the American shipping route by concentrating its movement North South of Americas, rather than the whole of the world. The American interest in Persian Gulf has seen a major decline. The concentration of shale oil deposits in Ukraine has allowed Ukraine to bargain with Russia, as it may not be dependent on Russian oil at all. That will allow it to take help of American technology. 8.The clout of OPEC has decreased and so have been the falling oil prices.

INDIAN CASE

India has large shale deposits, with good prospects in the Gangetic plain, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat. Tamil Nadu , Andhra and the north-east.

Large shale gas discoveries should embolden India to convert transport fleets in all cities from petrol and diesel to CNG. That will reduce not only energy dependence but pollution too.

PROSPECTS & SIGNIFICANCE OF SHALE GAS FOR INDIA

India has signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States Geological Survey for cooperation. The USGS is to identify the potential areas and amount of gas available in India.

PROSPECTS

The petroleum ministry has identified six basins for exploration in the first phase-Cambay, Krishna-Godavari, Cauvery, Ganga, Gondwana and Assam-Arakan.

1. The Assam-Arakan basin is considered to have significant shale gas deposits.

2. Unlike conventional oil fields are drilled first vertically and then horizontally. Shale gas is found in tight reservoirs that have poor permeability. Water, air, chemicals and sand are forced at great pressure down the drill and through perforations in the rock to stimulate the flow of gas. This process is known as hydraulic fracking. Availability of abundant water is major pre-requisite for this process.

3. Recently completed drilling of four wells in Durgapur, Raniganj, Jharia and North Karanpura near Hazaribagh. We are studying these sample for gas potential. Reliance Industries is also making rapid moves in the field. It has acquired 45 per cent stake each in Atlas Energy's Marcellus Shale.

Problems

1. Not going to be an easy affair as land acquisition could be a major problem Gangetic basin are densely inhabited. Shale gas is a land and water intensive project. 2. Hydraulic fracking, which is used for shale gas drilling, is fraught with environmental challenges, said environmentalists. Where fracking used, the ground water had been found contaminated by methane.

KNOW IT ALL FIRST!

Never Miss Anything From K Siddhartha By Signing Up To Our Newsletter.

Follow Us

Copyright © 2022 All Right Reserved K Siddhartha